Assignment 4A: The Wrong-est Technology Predictions

Hi everyone, here is my selection of the top 5 wrong predictions (with explanations) from our professor's list of 25. I selected these 5 because the speakers all have these things in common:

• They are experts in their fields
• They are leaders with a reputation to uphold
• They reject innovation because it threatens their current manner of doing business

Without further ado, here is my selection (ranked by how ubiquitous the invention is in today's world) with corresponding points:

1. “The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” — Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post Office.
• Preece is a chief engineer, in charge of maintaining the technological systems of the British Post Office.
• Preece has been knighted by the Queen of England.
• Preece probably feared that the telephone would cut down on the profits of the Post Office, and through deductive reasoning, risk losing his job.
2. "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home." – -Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation.
• DEC, like IBM, was a leader in the computer industry (succeeded by HP).
• DEC had won many awards, being the first creator of the microcomputer.
• DEC was not a leader in the PC market and therefore was threatened by the rise of competitors.
3. "The world potential market for copying machines is 5000 at most.” — IBM, to the eventual founders of Xerox.
• IBM was and still is one of the leading manufacturers of computer technology.
• IBM is taking the position as an investor talking to a startup company that needs capital.
• IBM is clearly threatened by the prospect of a copy machine as it is technology that IBM didn't invent itself.
4. “The idea that cavalry will be replaced by these iron coaches is absurd. It is little short of treasonous.” — Comment of Aide-de-camp.
• An Aide-de-camp is an assistant of a senior officer, someone that the senior trusts to make rational judgments to help in his decisions.
• The Aide-de-camp has to report to superiors and thus must maintain the status quo.
• The Aide-de-camp is thinking of subordinates and comrades who would be out of a job in the armed forces since tanks only need a small number of people to operate.
5. “ How, sir, would you make a ship sail against the wind and currents by lighting a bonfire under her deck? I pray you, excuse me, I have not the time to listen to such nonsense.” — Napoleon Bonaparte.
• Bonaparte is a conquerer, leader of thousands of troops, and expert strategist.
• Bonaparte needs to command the respect of his subordinates, so he cannot be backing then-absurd ideas.
• New technology means new training, new risks, and new complications--things that Bonaparte does not have the time to deal with.

I also researched 5 other wrong predictions not listed on the original 25. These ones I judged on a different criteria--each is a lesson that we, as a human race, have yet to learn from completely.

1. "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." — Irving Fisher, economist, 3 days before the stock market crash preceding the Great Depression.
• The Great Depression was a result of investor exuberance that was left unchecked--a bubble that burst. Sound familiar? Think the Dot-Com bubble in the 1990's and the Great Recession in the late 2000's. While tremendous amounts of legislation and regulation have been implemented each time to protect the global economy from another crash, bubbles still continue to form, driven by investor exuberance. 
• The lesson here is that human greed and mob mentality will continue to run rampant unless investors are warned and informed on how to value companies and why stocks move.
2. "I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." — Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, inventor of Ethernet
• The interesting thing about this quote is that Metcalfe's invention was essential to the development of the internet. He feared that our demand for more information (and thus more internet) would far outpace our power to keep the internet safe and secure. While the internet has not collapsed, it is in a constant state of turmoil, made clear by ongoing security breaches and concerns.
• The lesson here is to look before you leap.
3. "Within five years, I predict [the tablet] will be the most popular form of PC sold in America." — Bill Gates, Microsoft co-founder, in a 2002 speech at Comdex.
• The irony in this quote is while the tablet has become the fastest-growing, if not the most popular form of PC, Microsoft is not the leader. Both Microsoft and Apple experimented until 2010 when Apple took the market by storm and has since then kept a dominant market share. 
• The lesson to be learned here is that anyone can be a visionary, but success is determined by proper knowledge of the market and what it demands.
4. "The subscription model of buying music is bankrupt. I think you could make available the Second Coming in a subscription model, and it might not be successful." — Steve Jobs
• By 2012, iTunes held 64% of the music subscription market and generates over $8 billion per year for Apple.
• The lesson is to take business risks and not to discount ideas without testing them.
5. "Apple is already dead." -- Nathan Myhrvold, former Microsoft CTO, 1997
• Apple is now the most valuable company in the world, with an enterprise value 3 times as much as Microsoft, whereas Microsoft reached its peak value just 2 years after Myhrvold's prediction. 
• The lesson here is to never discount competitors and to never be complacent. Microsoft still struggles against Apple in almost every category other than personal computers (which many argue is a dying industry). By retreating into comfort and complacency, Microsoft stood by as Apple gained control.